Oscar Time!

My annual tradition of judging movies I've never seen has moved into the digital age. I've seen a whopping 5 of the 25 nominated acting performances (compared to a couple years ago, when I saw two). That said, I've been right for Best Picture every single year since about 2003 except for last year, even though I’ve probably seen less than a quarter of the nominees. I mostly make my predictions based on Hollywood politics, which seems to often play a bigger role than actual artistic ability.
For simplicity, I've listed just my predictions and omitted the other nominees. I've thrown in some commentary as well.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Toy Story 3. Yup, you read that right.
Best Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter.
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter. She’s one of the most underrated actresses in Hollywood, but I think this may be her shot.
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan. Not only did I actually see this movie, but I had nightmares of Natalie Portman chasing me around in a theater with a letter opener.
Best Actor: I’m going to call the upset: James Franco, 127 Hours. I know it doesn’t make any sense given all the buzz about Colin Firth’s performance in The King’s Speech, but Franco has spent most of his career cast in horribly sappy romance movies when I knew all along he could be doing something better. I almost called Jeff Bridges on this because he’s awesome.
Best Director: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech.
Best Picture: The King’s Speech. I almost gave this one to The Social Network or Black Swan (even though I hate the former) simply because I didn’t know how likely the Academy was to give this award to a biographical film (they gave it to The Last Emperor, A Beautiful Mind, and Gandhi but snubbed Milk, Capote, and The Aviator, among others). That said, I really can’t argue with the fact that all the signs are pointing to Hooper and The King’s Speech.

Overall Comments: I’d love to see an upset from The Kids Are All Right. Inception is probably the coolest movie I’ve seen in a while. Toy Story 3 almost made me cry, which is hard to do. However, I know that the Academy really doesn’t stick its neck out too much (after all, they were lambasted for giving Chicago and Crash Best Picture awards), so there’s only so much that I can hope for from a movie about a lesbian couple, an action movie, and a cartoon. That said, there’s no doubt The King’s Speech is still a well-crafted and well-acted film, and it’s bound to be rewarded.

Thanks for reading.